The Comparative Study on the Influence of Early Architectural Design Decisions on Energy Demand: A Case Study in Turkey

The early design process has the most salient design decisions for architects. It is crucial to observe the impact of these design decisions in terms of performance-based design. However, because of the large amount of variance of the performance criteria in the early design parameters, the decision-making is highly arduous. The current study proposes a method to quantify output uncertainty and presents the relationship between independent and dependent variables for providing insight into the decision-making process. The energy simulations for hypothetical office building based on TS-825 requirements are executed with cooling and heating demand (kWh/m 2-year) outputs for two different regions, i.e., Erzurum as a cold climate and Izmir as a hot-humid climate. Researchers compute the input parameters' impact on building performance with quasi-random statistical sampling and filtering techniques. Respectively, ineffective parameters are eliminated with factor fixing, and factor prioritization (i.e., first-order) is realized to sort the most effective parameters with Morris Local Sensitivity Analysis. The interaction (i.e., second-order) between independent variables is analyzed using Global Sensitivity Analysis of Sobol'. The output weighting process is applied for rating each result combining the performance based on output variables for the factor mapping. It is the presentation of 100 best solutions in the aspect of the effective range of the input parameters for the most significant reduction in the variance of the output variables. The results are presented with Parallel Coordinate Plot (PCP) for each climate as a comparison. Consequently, the study shows how climate conditions are essential for building energy demand, and design options could be analyzed based on the impact of design decisions.


Orçun Koral İŞERİ, Onur Dursun



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